YC Research · W22 → F26 · 2,745 companies
What YC actually funds vs what it announces
We took 4 years of YC batches, cross-referenced them against every Request for Startups (RFS) YC published, and looked for the gap. The gap is large.
01 · YC is reactive, not predictive
8 themes from the Summer 2026 RFS (announced 2026-06-02) had already accumulated 1,150+ matched companies BEFORE the announcement. YC formalises trends 1–3 years after starting to fund them.
Hidden trends →02 · Climate RFS is vanity
9% hit rate. Out of 22 climate sub-themes (Dec 2022), only 2 reached 10+ matches. The most detailed RFS YC ever published — and the lowest impact.
Climate sub-themes →03 · 2024 Latest RFS drove real waves
63% hit rate. Defense (3.33x lift), Robotics (2.02x), US Manufacturing (1.67x), Healthcare middlemen (1.56x) — all clean wave-starters with measurable founder response.
Wave starters →04 · YC = AI agents accelerator
AI-related themes grew from ~25% of W22 to ~70% of F25. 2.8x in 4 years. With 2026 batches included the share is structural, not cyclical.
Batch composition →05 · Money concentrates at the top — not on RFS labels
$8.83B raised across 1,215 companies with public funding data, but 64% sit under $1M. Top 1% of companies hold 38.6% of all capital. After age-matching, ZERO RFS themes show clean per-company funding amplification post-launch — the 'wave' you see in sums is volume, not bigger checks.
Beyond power law →06 · The next RFS is already in the batches
If you want to bet on the next RFS announcement, track themes whose matched-company count climbs batch-over-batch without a formal RFS yet — agent infrastructure and AI services are the strongest such signals today (neither had an RFS 18 months ago, both now dominate W25-F25 batches).
Hidden trends →Where the money actually went
Funding data scraped via WebSearch · 45% coverage · sorted by total raised.
| # | Company | Batch | Raised | One-liner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legora | Winter 2024 | $860M | The AI workspace for lawyers |
| 2 | Phind | Summer 2022 | $465M | AI search engine |
| 3 | Magic | Summer 2022 | $465M | Pay by Bank Platform |
| 4 | Kapital Bank | Winter 2022 | $371M | Data driven neobank for SMBs in LATAM |
| 5 | Corgi Insurance | Summer 2024 | $268M | Corgi is building an AI financial infrastructure company |
| 6 | Arc | Winter 2022 | $180M | Banking & Funding for Startups |
Batch composition over time
Top 20 RFS by total matched companies
Top 20 RFS by post-launch lift
